College Football Stories

With the start of the 2026 college football season just days away, I thought it’d be fun to throw out some predictions that I’m sure will be 100% dead-on accurate. This is, after all, the single-most predictable sport in the world. There is definitely not one team that will surprise us by springing a big upset, no currently-unknown players that will emerge as superstars, and there will certainly be no coaching-hot-seat drama or staff turnover in the middle of the season.

In no particular order, here are some bold (or maybe, not so bold) predictions about the 2026 college football season.

Lane Train Gets Derailed

There was no bigger story in late-November 2025 than the departure of Lane Kiffin from Oxford, Mississippi, to his new hot yoga studio home in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Kiffin left Ole Miss after six seasons with a 55-19 record. Ole Miss fans can, and just might, have a lot to say about Lane, but they would take that 55-19 all over again. It is hands-down the best six-year run that anyone has had for the Rebels in the last 60 years.

Kiffin takes over at LSU this year after the Tigers fired another college football fan-favorite, Brian Kelly. In his first three full seasons in the Bayou, Kelly went 29-11, with an SEC West division title, a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, and an 0-2 record against Florida State. After an embarrassing home loss to Texas A&M in late-October 2025, Kelly was fired. Kiffin was announced as the Tigers’ head coach on November 30th, 2025.

Lane is well on his way to collecting all the SEC infinity stones, as the Tigers are the third school in the conference to have the pleasure of his head coaching services. LSU has a $40 million roster consisting of a QB that led Arizona State to the College Football Playoff in 2024, Colorado’s prized offensive tackle, and a bevy of Ole Miss transfers. There is incredible pressure on Lane to win big in year one. LSU’s win total is set at 8.5, which essentially means that at 9-3, the Tigers would exceed the expectations set by bookmakers. At 9-3, fans in Baton Rouge will likely have a multi-million dollar meltdown.

LSU has a non-conference home match-up in Week One against the Clemson Tigers. They play on the road at Ole Miss and Tennessee, Lane’s former lovers schools. The Tigers have Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas at home in Tiger Stadium. These games will provide plenty of opportunities for LSU to impress the country, as well as the CFP Committee. On the other hand, should LSU drop a few of these games, particularly early in the year, the mercenaries that Lane hired may just as soon take their ball (of money) and go home.

My prediction is that the Tigers will go 9-3, miss the playoffs, and set a record for points scored in the Reliaquest Bowl against the Michigan Wolverines. Lane will be the on the hottest of seats at the beginning of the 2027, despite winning double-digit games in year one. On the post-season edition of CBS Sports Inside College Football, Brian Kelly laughs maniacally.

Norvell Makes it to November

Speaking of coaching hot seats and boatloads of money, Mike Norvell begins his seventh season as the head coach at Florida State. After a 19-game win streak in 2022-2023, an ACC Championship, and a CFP snub, the Seminoles have been downright abysmal. Norvell is 7-18 since that ACC title game win, which should be more than enough to get a coach fired at FSU.

The Noles were winless (0-10) away from home in 2024 and 2025. There has been a revolving door of transfer quarterbacks each of the last two seasons and again in 2026. The numerous transfer portal additions have not made up for the very poor high school recruiting over Norvell’s tenure. Oh yeah, and there’s that other thing, the $50+ million buyout after the massive contract extension that Norvell was given in December of 2023.

The Noles beat Alabama at home last year (or did I dream that?) and make the return trip to the Crimson Tide this season. They have their annual non-conference game against the Florida Gators at the end of the season. Their conference schedule in 2026 is much tougher than it has been in recent years. FSU plays the top-six favorites to win the ACC, and seven of the top eight. The Noles have the 11th-best odds to win the league. Of those games, two of them are Friday night road match-ups, while the other road game is at rival Miami.

This prediction could be null and void by the first Sunday in October, as SMU, Bama, and Virginia are the Noles first three Power Four opponents. If Florida State’s only wins are against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas, then it is likely the end of the road for Norvell. However, if FSU can beat one of those three teams, I think he survives the year. If they are 4-1 after that stretch, Mike just might get another extension.

The Florida State administration had the perfect opportunity to get rid of Mike after the Noles’ inexplicable loss to Stanford in 2025. The fact that he was welcomed aboard the flight in California to return home with the team should have answered our questions about his job status. Florida State’s athletic director, Michael Alford, gave a statement stating that an assessment of Norvell and the football program would be conducted at the conclusion of the 2025 season. The results of that assessment are clear: Norvell isn’t going anywhere any time soon. If a 2-10 record in 2024 won’t get a coach fired at FSU, why would a 5-7 record do the trick?

FSU’s win total is set at 6.5, which means sportsbooks actually expect FSU to go bowling. Given the difficult schedule, 7-5 (in a vacuum) may not look too bad. But this is Florida State; 7-5 should never be good enough. Alas, I think a 5-3 or 4-4 record after the Clemson game on Halloween allows Norvell to at least finish out the season. The Noles will beat Boston College and either Pitt or NC State. A blowout home loss to Florida at the end of the year will dampen spirits, but with bowl eligibility secured already, it won’t matter.

I predict that a six-win FSU team sneaks into the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana, on December 22nd, 2026, in front of dozens of fans. A new bowl streak is started in Tallahassee, Florida, and we have the two Mikes to thank for it. Meanwhile, with FSU trailing against a Sun Belt foe at halftime, Jimbo Fisher is announced as the new Seminoles head coach, again. Peanuts in Jack and Coke returns as the favorite post-game cocktail in Tallahassee.

The State of Texas is Back!

Speaking of Jimbo Fisher, his (other) former school started 11-0 in 2025. Unfortunately, the Texas A&M Aggies finished 0-2 with losses to rival Texas in the regular season finale and to Miami in a home playoff game. The 12th man just couldn’t quite pull the Ags to that 12th win; maybe the Yell Leaders are losing their touch. Aggies head coach Mike Elko had to replace his offensive coordinator but has his starting QB returning. Elko’s defenses are always talented, coached-up, and well-prepared, so look for the preseason AP No. 8 to be in contention for the CFP once again.

Their rival, the Texas Longhorns, are ranked No. 5 and are one of the favorites to win the whole thing. Some guy named Manning is leading a lethal UT offense, which added Auburn transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman and NC State transfer running back Hollywood Smothers. The Horns return WR Ryan Wingo and left tackle Trevor Goosby. The defense is ultra talented and returns superstar edge rusher Colin Simmons. Transfer linebackers Justin Cryer and Rasheem Biles should flourish under the tutelage of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Texas still has a Georgia problem, but the Horns won’t play Georgia in the 2026 regular season. Muschamp might be the only person in that building that isn’t terrified of Kirby Smart.

Over in Lubbock, Texas, the Red Raiders are the Big 12 favorites once again. Texas Tech took a gamble at the quarterback position this offseason, but it appears as though Will Hammond will earn the job as the starter. Last season’s heroics during the Utah game earned Hammond the respect of his teammates, the coaching staff, and the fanbase. I wouldn’t bet on Hammond staying 100% healthy all year, but then again, Tech’s schedule is light enough that he should be wearing a baseball cap and holding a clipboard by halftime most weeks.

The non-conference games are Abilene Christian, Oregon State, and Sam Houston. The three toughest games on the schedule are against Houston, Arizona State, and TCU, but all are home games. They dodge BYU, Kansas State, and Utah. The Red Raiders should go 11-1 or 12-0, and find themselves right back in the Big 12 title game and College Football Playoff.

The Houston Cougars and SMU Mustangs are potential playoff dark horses and conference title contenders. Willie Fritz’s Cougars were one of the quieter 10-3 teams last season. They were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, and dropped games down the stretch against West Virginia and TCU. Former Aggies QB Conner Weigman is back to run the offense again for the Coogs.

SMU is tied for the second-best odds to win the ACC, and returns their third-year starting QB Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs made it to the CFP in 2024 despite losing the ACC Championship Game. Should SMU finish the regular season at 11-1 again, as they did in ’24, they should be a lock to be in the ACCCG and the CFP.

The bold prediction here is that three teams from the state of Texas make it into the playoffs, but only one of them is from the SEC. Greg Sankey immediately pleads his case to Congress for legislation on both playoff expansion and exclusion.

Championship Picks

I have stated on this site before that the post-season (CFP, bowl games, etc.) is not the main focus of this sport for me. The regular season is more important to college football than any other sport. Saturdays in the fall are what I love most about this sport. Playoff expansion is great in the sense that we get more football, but more is not always better. When the 16- or 24-team playoff inevitably becomes a reality, and there are multiple 8-4 or 7-5 teams from major conferences that get invited to the dance, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

All that being said, I will make some predictions about who I think will play for and win conference championships. I guess I’ll even throw out playoff picks. Most of these, particularly the Power Four picks, are not very bold. I hate it as much as anyone, trust me, but I am making these picks as if I was picking with my wallet instead of my heart.

SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas; Dawgs win; I’ll have to see it before I believe it to ever pick the Horns over UGA

Big Ten Championship: Oregon vs. Ohio State; the Ducks get revenge over the Buckeyes after the Rose Bowl beatdown in the 2024 CFP

ACC Championship: Miami vs. SMU; Miami rolls through the ACC in the regular season; SMU provides a nice test but the Canes finally win an ACC Championship

Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech vs. BYU; the Cougars get revenge on Tech after last season and win the league; both teams get into the CFP

American Championship: Navy vs. East Carolina; this is going to be a fun league; the Mids have a brand new offense, but find a way to the title game; the Pirates win this one as Navy is caught looking ahead to the following week’s game against Army

Sun Belt Championship: James Madison vs. Georgia Southern; the Dukes made the CFP last year; Sun Belt Billy Napier is back in the league as the JMU head coach; the Eagles, led by 7th-year QB Max Johnson, lead the league in scoring; JMU wins in a shootout

Mountain West Championship: UNLV vs. New Mexico; Dan Mullen and the Rebels beat the Lobos in the regular season and the conference championship; Mullen is hired away to a Power Four school after this game ends

Pac-12 Championship: Boise State vs. San Diego State; the Broncos and Aztecs play on Oct. 10th, 2026; Sean Lewis and the Aztecs take down the Broncos in the rematch after losing the regular season contest

MAC Championship: Miami (OH) vs. Ohio; the Bobcats sweep the RedHawks in 2026 to capture the MAC title

Conference USA Championship: Jax St. vs. Kennesaw State; these teams played twice last season and split; I think the same thing happens this year, only this time the Gamecocks win the one that matters

Group of 6 Highest Ranked Team: UNLV has the best chance to make the CFP as the G6 representative (I think) given their schedule. Non-conference games against Memphis and Cal are respectable. If the Rebels go 11-1 in the regular season and handle business in the conference title game, they should probably be in over other G6 contenders.

Playoff Picks

First-round Byes: (1) Oregon, (2) Georgia, (3) Miami, (4) Ohio State

First Round (winners in bold)

Quarterfinals (winners in bold)

Semi-Finals (winners in bold)

Final (winner in bold)

(4) Ohio State vs. (2) Georgia